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Wall Street needs a new rhyme for "sell in May and go away." NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Advertisement"Sell in May and go away" is an old Wall Street adage that highlights the fact that the stock market's worst six-month stretch of performance is historically May through October. LPL Financial's chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist highlighted that since 1950, average returns for the S&P 500 during this six-month period are actually positive, not negative, at +1.7%.
Persons: Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, , they're, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Ryan Detrick, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, Detrick Organizations: Service, Carson Group
Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.
Persons: , that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on February 14, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures are were little changed on Thursday night as investors attempt to carry forward the broader market's strong momentum. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 27 points, or 0.07%. S&P futures inched up 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 37 points, or 0.2%. "Market expectations and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy projections have become closer aligned, alleviating a source of market volatility.
Persons: Dow, Adam Turnquist Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Materials, LPL, Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, U.S
Read previewThe S&P 500 surpassed 5,000 for the first time on Friday, riding a wave of investor optimism about the health of the US economy. It's represented by the red line in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is shown in blue. Here's a chart from a regression analysis by Bank of America showing the impact that valuations have on long-term stock market returns. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 23% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman, Hussman, It's, Tom Lee, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Hussman, Bank of America
Off the Charts: Nikkei hits 34-year high
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOff the Charts: Nikkei hits 34-year highAdam Turnquist, LPL Financial, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the Nikkei hitting a 34-year high on Yen weakness and where it goes from here.
Persons: Adam Turnquist Organizations: Nikkei, LPL
Investors are watching the S & P 500 after it rallied back toward the key 4,600 level to see if it can break out to new all-time highs. A record high in the S & P 500 looks promising after the broader index on Friday closed at 4,594.63, or its best level since March 2022. In July, the last time the S & P 500 tested the threshold, the rally was led by mega-cap tech stocks. On Monday, the market rally took a breather; the S & P 500 ended the session lower by 0.5%, and it stood about 5% below its record. In fact, one market technician on Monday said the S & P 500 could plunge back to its bear market lows in 2024.
Persons: Stocks, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, you've, JPMorgan's, Jason Hunter, Hunter, CNBC's, Adam Turnquist, he's, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Lululemon, O'Hara, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chris Hayes Organizations: Broadcom Locations: oversold
Right now, it shows the S&P 500 at levels higher than during the dot-com bubble. According to Hussman's model, the S&P 500 will underperform Treasurys by about 7.5% over the next 12 years, the lowest projection since the 2000 and 1929 bubbles. Actual S&P 500 performance tends to follow Hussman's projections closely. Here's the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, which averages valuations over the prior 10 years. Much of those gains are thanks to the so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks, the S&P 500's biggest seven stocks by market cap.
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Treasury, Federal, LPL Financial Locations: it's
Wall Street is set to wrap up a strong month next week as stocks gun for new highs heading into year end. The Nasdaq Composite is on pace to close out the month with a double-digit advance, up 10%. In contrast to September and October, which are typically weak periods for stocks, the seasonal patterns are now in favor of equities. This week, LPL Financial's Adam Turnquist pointed out that more than half, or 55%, of S & P 500 stocks closed above their 200-day moving average. It's set to show a rise of 0.2%, down from the 0.7% rise in the prior month, according to FactSet consensus estimates.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Sam Stovall, That's, CFRA's Stovall, What's, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Morningstar's Dave Sekera, Sekera, Morningstar's Sekera, Salesforce, Gartner Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank, Treasury, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, New, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Intuit, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, PMI, Manufacturing, Dominion Energy, Cboe, Cardinal Health Locations: Chicago
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries
Which economic giant should emerging markets investors go for: China or India? India is the "best structural growth opportunity" in emerging markets, according to Malcolm Dorson, head of emerging markets strategy at Global X ETFs. LPL Financial's chief technical strategist, Adam Turnquist, added that India has emerged as an increasingly attractive alternative to China. Where and how to invest in India Investors could go for the "booming areas" in India — renewables such as hydrogen and solar energy, as well as agricultural tech, according to Sharma. But both Krosby and Dorson would advocate active management in emerging markets such as India, given political and economic complexities, among other reasons.
Persons: Malcolm Dorson, Morgan Stanley, Dorson, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, Rahul Sen Sharma, Sharma, Morningstar Organizations: Shenzhen Component, CNBC, Global, Chinese Communist Party, LPL, Ned, Ned Davis Research, India Investors, India, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, Jewelry, India Active Locations: China, India, Shenzhen, Asia, Beijing
U.S. equity futures were flat on Sunday evening after the major averages capped their best week so far this year. S&P 500 futures ticked higher by 0.03% and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered below the flat line at 0.01%. November is the best-performing month for the S&P 500, according to the Stock Traders' Almanac. The S&P 500 has generated an average return of 7% from November through April since then, he said. Several other Fed officials are making public remarks later in the week as well, including New York Federal Reserve President and CEO John Williams, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
Persons: Dow, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Walt Disney, Wynn, Jerome Powell, Bharat Ramamurti, CNBC's, Lisa D, Cook, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin, Lorie Logan Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Stock Traders, MGM Resorts, Occidental Petroleum, National Economic Council, New York Federal Reserve, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Federal, Dallas Fed Locations: Horton, Atlanta, Richmond
The S&P 500 has slid about 5% since reaching its late-July high, but so far this month the benchmark index has rebounded. In 12 of those times the S&P 500 was higher six months later, Turnquist said. Reuters GraphicsStocks have tended to perform well at year end -- with November and December logging the second and third-biggest average S&P 500 monthly gains -- though this year the trends may portend even more favorably. That was followed by a 28% rally in the S&P 500 through late July of this year. Further, notes Delwiche, stock market breadth has been weak.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Willie Delwiche, Delwiche, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Thursday’s U.S, Ned, Ned Davis Research, LPL, Reuters Graphics, American, of, Mount Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
US stocks traded mixed on Friday as a government shutdown looked increasingly likely. The session also closed out a dismal September, with the S&P 500 losing 5% to mark its worst month of 2023. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Friday as investors initially cheered better-than-expected inflation news but grew jittery as a government shutdown appeared more likely. The S&P 500 slid around 5% to mark its worst month of 2023, while the Dow lost about 4%, and the Nasdaq sank 6%. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has historically declined in September 55% of the time, posting an average loss of around 3.8%.
Persons: , Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Dow, Nasdaq, Dow Jones
Stock futures edged higher in overnight trading Sunday as the market is set to enter the last week of trading in September with big losses. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both inched up 0.2%. Stocks have struggled this month as the Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates for longer, sending bond yields rising. The market also contended with a rally in crude oil and a winning streak in the dollar during the seasonally weak trading month. The S&P 500 has fallen 4.2% this month, on pace for its second straight losing month and its worst month since December.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Treasury, LPL, Lawmakers Locations: Washington, U.S
The S&P 500 (.SPX) tumbled 2.9% this week, its biggest weekly decline since March. High Treasury yields dull the allure of stocks by offering investors an attractive payout on an investment seen as virtually risk free. The S&P 500 entered what has historically been its weakest 10-day stretch of the year on Sept. 18, according to BofA Global Research. Meanwhile, a drawn out government shutdown could aggravate concerns over U.S. government gridlock and send Treasury yields even higher. He noted that the S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average and there have been few signs of investors fleeing to safety.
Persons: Charlie Ripley, Brian Jacobsen, , , Fitch, Keith Lerner, Adam Turnquist, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Investors, BoFA, Allianz Investment Management, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, BofA Global Research, Societe Generale, LPL Financial, Thomson
US stocks ended slightly higher Friday to close out a losing week. Bond yields climbed on the week following the Fed's hawkish signaling Wednesday. Policymakers did not adjust interest rates this week, but another hike is on the table before 2024. Both oil prices and bond yields surged over the course of the week, with the 10-year Treasury hitting 4.49%, its highest mark since 2007. Once again, the move in rates has proven to be too much too fast for equity markets to handle."
Persons: Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, LPL Financial, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon
The S&P 500 slumped on Tuesday to kick off the first trading day of a holiday-shortened week, weighed by a jump in crude oil prices. The S&P 500 dipped 0.15%, while the Nasdaq Composite hovered near the flatline. Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia extended its 1-million-barrels per day voluntary oil production cuts. "If you have oil prices moving up that could be inflationary," said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist. Meanwhile, the Dow and the Nasdaq are coming off their best weekly performances since July, while the S&P 500 registered its best week since June.
Persons: Keith Lerner, Goldman Sachs, Adam Turnquist, Sarah Min Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, West Texas, Halliburton, Occidental Petroleum, EOG Resources, American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Treasury, Dow, LPL Locations: New York City, Saudi Arabia
CNBC Daily Open: With such high yields, why buy stocks?
  + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That's called the equity risk premium, a return that's supposed to compensate stock investors for the chance that they might lose money. Another potential issue that could crop up with high Treasury yields is that it could make the Federal Reserve's job tougher. It wasn't a surprise, then, that stock markets fell Tuesday.
Persons: Nathan Howard, Tesla, Anwar Ibrahim, CNBC's Martin Soong, That's, yield's, Rupert Thompson, Cash, Bob Pisani, it's, Torsten Slok, Adam Turnquist, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Malaysia, country's, Vehicle Global, Analysts, International Atomic Energy Agency, Kingswood Group, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia, LPL, Yardeni Locations: Washington , DC, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai, Malaysia, California, China, Tokyo
Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Typically, stocks — if they do well — tend to return more than a risk-free asset, precisely because it isn't certain stocks will rise. While "the Fed can control short rates," long rates going up can introduce "significant risk" to the economy, such as the recent Fitch downgrade and quantitative tightening. It wasn't a surprise, then, that stock markets fell Tuesday.
Persons: Nathan Howard, yield's, Rupert Thompson, Cash, That's, Bob Pisani, it's, Torsten Slok, Adam Turnquist, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Kingswood Group, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia, LPL, Yardeni Locations: Washington , DC
Yields on 10-year Treasury yields have surged well above 4%. With both stock valuations and interest rates high, stock prices could continue to fall. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes surged to 15-year highs this week, surpassing 4.3% for the first time since late 2007. This has put a damper on what was a 20% rally for the S&P 500 from January to the end of July. The median S&P 500 year-end price target among major Wall Street strategists is 4,300, just below the index's current price around 4,370.
Persons: Stocks, Adam Turnquist, Treasurys, It's, John Lynch, they've, Tom Essaye, Lynch, Turnquist, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Treasury, LPL, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth, Wall Street, Rosenberg Research, RBC, BNP
On Thursday, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond hit its highest since 2011 and the 10-year note notched its best return since October 2022. Bond yields go up as bond prices fall. What it means: Higher bond yields could mean bad news for stocks: Bonds compete with stocks for investors’ dollars, and when yields go up, equities often go down. If international bond yields rise, the demand for US bonds may decrease, meaning the US may have to offer even higher yields to attract investors. Still, whatever happens abroad, Turnquist said the key to bringing Treasury yields down will be a slower US economy.
Persons: Bond, Stocks, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, , ” Taylor, Taylor Swift, QuestionPro, Swift, Krystal Hur, Bryan Mena, Elton John’s, Larry Miller, New York University Steinhardt Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, LPL, Treasury, EU, Bank of, Electric, Hawaiian Electric Industries, Street Journal, P Global, CNN, North, New York University Locations: New York, Bank of Japan, Hawaii, Maui, Lahaina, Los Angeles, American, North America
US investors are searching overseas for opportunities
  + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —Despite the gains in US stocks this year, some investors are looking for opportunities elsewhere. That’s despite what’s been shaping up to be a banner year for the US stock market — at least prior to this week’s US credit rating downgrade (more on that below). But some investors say that cheaper valuations for non-US stocks, compared to their domestic counterparts, are enticing some on Wall Street to look for deals overseas. The S&P 500 index currently trades at about 19.6 times its expected earnings, according to FactSet. That MSCI All Country World ex USA index has risen roughly 9% on a US dollar basis, underperforming the S&P 500.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, That’s, what’s, , Adam Turnquist, China’s, Jimmy Lee, bode, Fitch, ” Richard Francis, CNN’s Matt Egan, Francis, , ” Francis, Janet Yellen, Obama, Jason Furman, Larry Summers, Read, Sam Stovall Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, LPL, Global, The Wealth Consulting, America, Fitch, Treasury Department, AAA
Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading Sunday as the market is poised to wrap up the month of July with strong gains. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 34 points. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.4% higher. Last week, the 30-stock average posted a 13-day advance that matched the index's longest streak of gains going back to 1987. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy to have added 200,000 jobs in July.
Persons: Dow, Adam Turnquist, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Nonfarm Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, LPL Locations: U.S
Last Thursday, the S&P 500 entered a bull market — up 20% from its recent lows. But the market’s strength has been mostly driven by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA). Before the Bell: AI is causing a big market boom right now, but that boom also seems to be concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks. Everything you wanted to know about a bull market but were afraid to askThe US entered a bull market last Thursday, finally. A bear in bull’s clothes: A 20% lift from recent lows is generally accepted as the definition of the start of a bull market.
Persons: , Matt Bartolini, Bell, Pets.com, I’m, They’ve, Adam Turnquist, James Demmert, what’s, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, SPDR, Street Global Advisors, Meta, US, LPL, Big Tech, Main, Research, Investors, Federal Reserve, P Global Market Intelligence, , European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New York, Europe, SPDR Americas, Big, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong
Six months into 2023, the S&P 500 is having an impressive year, returning more than 11% so far since January. Only 44% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to LPL Financial. Technology and consumer are the only sectors up on the year, and even they are exhibiting narrow breadth," he said. Bank of AmericaOf course, market breadth could improve if the fundamental economic outlook improves along with investor sentiment. If the labor market stays sturdy, a stock market rally could become more sustainable.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Mike Wilson, Here's David Rosenberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Adam Turnquist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, LPL, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, North, UBS, NYSE, Technology, of America's Locations: North American, China
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